A season-defining Round of 32 game
It feels like everything is on the line for Auburn today, but here's what's giving me hope that the Tigers can pull it out.
It feels like this Round of 32 game will define Auburn’s season, in a season when Auburn won Maui, the SEC, and set program records with a National Player of the Year leading the way.
Add Auburn’s recent streak of first weekend woes to the list and the pressure, the anticipation, and the anxiety rise even more.
If it’s gonna click for this Auburn then it has to now… and it just might.
Creighton is good enough to beat Auburn if Auburn doesn’t fix some of the intensity and execution issues it has dealt with lately, but I’ve still got some hope that those issues take a pretty significant step in the right direction.
Not only is Creighton a new face, it’s the first game in a while that has mattered and that Auburn knows it can’t steamroll its opponent.
That makes this game a little easier to get up for, compared to playing for two weeks in a conference you already won and following it up with Alabama A&M in round one.
There were also some positive developments that make me think more execution and intensity from those who need to show it will result in Auburn bouncing back even further than expected.
The question is: Can Auburn get enough out of the guys who haven’t been showing it?
Auburn isn’t at a point where it needs to peak now or go home, but the Tigers have to lock in and execute at a much higher level to even continue to survive and advance against Creighton.
Here’s why I think that may happen…
Effort and intensity
It’s well documented, to the extent that Dylan Cardwell and Steven Pearl even called it out, that Auburn isn’t playing with the same level of effort and intensity that it started the season with.
It’s understandable that it fell off a little after wrapping up the SEC so early, but it would be unforgivable to not flip the switch in a couple of areas where it should be easy to.
Getting some new opponents in front of them could go a long way, but I think Auburn’s leaders need to step back into those roles. Whether that’s firing Chad Baker-Mazara back up, whose energy spreads through the team, getting Johni Broome going with extra touches, or playing more Cardwell — anything would be better than nothing.
If something is going to change, the combination of a new (difficult) opponent and the coaches and players being verbal about the issue will change this trend’s course.
The Miles Kelly recipe
Stone Mountain native Miles Kelly has 16 threes in Rupp Arena this season, and he’ll be back in Rupp for a third game when Auburn takes on Creighton.
If Auburn beats Creighton, Kelly and company will head back to Atlanta for a Sweet 16 game (and a chance at an Elite Eight) just a short drive away from Kelly’s hometown.
Another hot game in Rupp and then returning “home” for another game or two, could put Kelly in serious danger of catching fire.
In a tournament always tagged as being “all about guard play,” Auburn might have stumbled upon the seeding necessary to get Kelly red hot at the right time.
Creighton could also be an important game for Kelly. The Blue Jays have a big capable of slowing down Auburn’s front court and were led by Janiya Neal’s 30 points against Louisville. Kelly might be asked to carry the load on offense a little more and match up with the 6-5 Neal — especially if Auburn runs more of the three guard lineups we’ve been seeing.
And he’s not the only guard who got things going against Alabama A&M.
Shaking off slumps
Tahaad Pettiford and Chaney Johnson shook off slumps, and Auburn had good guard play in the NCAA Tournament among other trends.
Auburn has been so good at times this season that it has never been just one person sailing the ship. It has been a combination of good shooting guards with an elite big man who can pass, a bunch of guys creating and giving defenses fits, great defense 1-5, etc. However, Johnson makes Auburn significantly better when he’s playing well — even if Auburn doesn’t need a good game from Johnson to be great.
Auburn is 18-1 when Johnson scores in double figures, including wins over Tennessee, Houston, and Alabama.
When Johnson is playing well he gives the Tigers a completely different look at his position, and that’s something that shows up on offense with his mobile play and sometimes as a three-point shooter. It also shows up with his passing and rim running and with his defense — giving Auburn a forward more suited to match up with mobile fours. Getting efficient and higher minute games from Johnson is crucial.
Pettiford goes without saying. He’s one of the best big game scorers in the country and Auburn is in the big dance.
What Creighton does
Creighton is well known for big man Ryan Kalkbrenner. He’s a great shot blocker and a force in pick and roll offense and defense.
However, Creighton likes to shoot threes — whether they’re making or missing them.
Auburn has the defense necessary to run Creighton’s shooters off the three-point line, but it’ll be up to them to stay locked in and discliplined to prevent easy shots and open threes.
It’ll also be up to Auburn’s front court to stay engaged and alert enough to block shots from driving guards if Auburn’s guards are running shooters off the three-point line.
This Creighton team has won two or more NCAA Tournament games the past two seasons but has not performed up to par throughout this season. KenPom ranking wise, Creighton (35) matches up more with Georgia (37) and Arkansas (39) — the last two SEC teams Auburn saw that were ranked outside of the top 30.
All in all, this Auburn team is so talented and versatile that it’s not “play your best right now or it’s over,” it’s “find ways to win until you are playing your best.” And the way to win this one is more effort.
Auburn doesn’t have to play its best game to get a win, but the issues have risen to the point of no improvement will probably lead to a loss if Creighton brings its A-game.
We’ve seen Auburn bounce back in big ways from its losses to Duke and Florida. While this slump is much more serious, this team has also shown flashes of being one of the best to ever do it — so I can’t say they’ve run out of time to flip the switch. There’s a chance they have. There’s also a chance this team has one of the best bounce backs we’ve ever seen.