Auburn at Texas: A battle for the Buc-ee’s Beavers

Auburn travels to Texas for the Tigers’ first “SEC” road game of the season, almost as if the matchup was predetermined by Neville Arena’s growing contingency of Buc-ee’s Beavers.

In many ways this is a bigger game when it comes to perception than it is on paper.

Both teams have plenty of chances to avenge a potential loss against similar opponents in similar circumstances, but Texas is coming off a late-game thumping at the hands of Texas A&M and Auburn—somehow still fighting for its first AP Poll No. 1 ranking of the season—doesn’t want to be crowned a home-game merchant after losing its first true road game of the season against Duke. We all know how national media holds onto its Auburn narratives, and a team deserving of that No. 1 ranking should be able to pull off a win tonight.

On top of that, and despite the great regular season Auburn had last year, Auburn has lost the last 11 games it has played against top 50 KenPom teams on the road. But, that’s probably about to change. A decent game from Auburn should defeat Texas due to the advantages Auburn has on paper.

Keys to victory

Auburn needs to stay disciplined on offense and on the boards in this game; Texas simply doesn’t have the personnel to handle Auburn’s front court.

Auburn lost the rebounding battle against Missouri, but a concerted effort from the front court won’t let that happen against Texas.

Texas has a good rebounder and capable defender in Kadin Shedrick but he doesn’t have much help.

Shedrick has been the only Texas player listed at 6’8” or taller to play more than five minutes in any of Texas’ three losses, which bodes well for Chaney Johnson and Auburn’s two-big lineups finding success. The Longhorns lost the rebounding battles in their three losses by 10 (A&M), 14 (UConn), and two (Ohio State).

Texas did a solid job of limiting Aaron Bradshaw, Liam McNeeley, and some of the other good forwards and centers they’ve faced, but most of those games saw someone else step up in the front court against Texas. Auburn also has the bigs to take advantage of a skimpy Texas front court.

If Texas wants to win

… it better pray for Auburn’s bigs to get in foul trouble.

On paper, Texas looks like the kind of team that can get in and win a shootout at home. While the Longhorns are No. 7 nationally in three point percentage, Texas shot 25 percent from deep against Ohio State and 27 percent from deep against Texas A&M. The Longhorns did hit 47 percent from deep against UConn, but the team hasn't made more than 10 threes in a game against a top 100 opponent this season. Auburn has done so five times, including against Duke and against a common opponent in Ohio State.

If the foul trouble is bad for Auburn, Texas could make things interesting, but I just don’t see Texas having the shooting volume to engage a full-strength Auburn team in a shootout or the stopping power to slow down Johni Broome and company in a late-game defensive rock fight — which is how the Longhorns fumbled close games against UConn and Texas A&M.

Without foul trouble getting in the way, Auburn can play a safe, defense-first game and still overpower the Longhorns.

If foul trouble is on the horizon, Texas has a backcourt that can spread out Auburn’s defense and limit the offense with its length.

Tramon Mark torched Auburn, basically single-handedly knocking Auburn out of the NCAA Tournament two years ago in a game between the Tigers and Houston.

Last season he transferred to Arkansas and Auburn held him to 10 points. This season, Auburn’s backcourt and wings are even better defenders.

However, Texas has better scorers in freshman phenom Tre Johnson and a top transfer in Jordan Pope, who already has a 40-ball to his name this season (even though it came against New Orleans). All three guys are on the bigger end for their position (Pope is 6’2”, Mark is 6’5”, and Johnson is 6’6”). All three have plenty of experience but not enough talent to beat Auburn on their own.

SEC road games

It’s easy to say, and believe, that Auburn will cruise to a victory here. Auburn almost beat Duke on the road and has been making teams in Texas’ analytical range look like victims of buy-games — with Auburn even calling off the dogs against a top 20 Purdue team after leading by 30-plus points with plenty of time left to play.

Texas is No. 43 on KenPom as I write this, but this game won’t be in Neville Arena, and Bruce Pearl said it could be the most hostile road environment Auburn has faced yet… a hat tip to all the Auburn fans who made the trip to Cameron Indoor.

Every SEC team should expect at least one surprising road loss this season. The conference is just too good and it’s difficult winning on the road in conference play.

Auburn is good enough to avoid most of those games, and I have Auburn winning this game, but I won’t be floored by an upset.

However, this Auburn team is special. It must be beyond frustrating to play against them. Auburn (at times) has five shutdown defenders on the court and doesn’t give up anything on offense to play those lineups. Even with an all-defensive lineup, Auburn can still also play two three-point snipers in Denver Jones and Miles Kelly, a facilitating wing in Chad Baker-Mazara, an athletic forward of its choice, and not to mention… the best player and scorer in the country in Johni Broome. That’s unfair. It’s nightmare fuel for opposing teams.

Texas is extremely experienced (top 20 in minute continuity), has tall/long and experienced guards, and plays good defense. There’s a path for the Longhorns to win, but I think Auburn will be too motivated and too locked in to let it happen.

A win will also make Bruce Pearl Auburn’s all-time winningest basketball coach.