Auburn plays Houston on Saturday in a battle of the top two KenPom teams in the country.
The game will be the ultimate litmus test for Auburn and Houston—both teams dismantled their first opponents of the season by more than 50 points—and it will be a battle between two of the best defenses in the country.
Despite Houston getting off to a hot start and returning a lot of talent, there are things that make this game winnable for Auburn.
Breaking down Houston’s defense
Houston is all about defense, and Houston’s defense is all about disrupting ball screens.
When there’s a ball screen initiated by a guard and a big, the Houston defenders assigned to those players aggressively rush the ball handler. The goal is to push the ball handler to half court for what is more or less a trap. Houston coach Kelvin Sampson says that Houston doesn’t trap, so a lot of people call it something like a blitz instead.
With this defense, Houston is doubling the ball handler and rotating a defender to help on the rolling big. If the ball handler involved in the action can process the defense quick enough and make good enough passes, then they can always find somebody who has an above average shot — whether it’s the rolling big or the perimeter player who opens up due to Houston’s rotation.
What helps Houston is that most college point guards are small and that most college bigs aren’t capable of knocking down catch-and-shoot shots or of facilitating from the high post after getting a short pass. Auburn doesn’t really fall into these stereotypes this season.
How can Auburn beat Houston’s defense?
Auburn can expose some of the weaknesses of Houston’s defense. The Tigers have bigs capable of pick and pops, veteran guards, creators on the wing and high post, and offense that doesn’t rely on ball screens.
Houston is so athletic and disciplined that they’ll adjust if needed, but having an answer to the blitz defense is the biggest needle mover Auburn can have.
Bruce Pearl ran a lot of offense through Allen Flanigan in the last meeting with Houston, so I expect to see more of that with Chad Baker-Mazara being an even better facilitator. He has a better chance at seeing over the blitzing defenders and his passing ability in ball screen offense is on par with many guards.
Because Houston’s defense tries to push the ball handler to half court, there’s a lot more space around the perimeter. Auburn has good shooting bigs in Johni Broome, Turtle Hudson, and Chaney Johnson who are all capable of setting screens.
Auburn also has a built-in advantage of having players who can score without ball screens. Broome is a given. Houston is going to send double teams if Auburn throws to Broome in the post, but he’s a great passer. He’s also taller than anyone on Houston’s team. While Houston’s post defenders are still great at what they do, Broome’s passing ability and height will give him an advantage that not many others have in the college ranks.
Broome had 14 points and shot 50 percent from the field the last time these two teams met.
We also saw Johnson come alive against Vermont on the same kind of actions that will be open in the high post against Houston. Similar actions to ones that Auburn ran to Jaylin Williams in the last meeting with Houston, forcing the Cougars to switch to a zone defense early on.
Auburn didn’t shy away from running ball screens in its last meeting with Houston. The Tigers used them heavily and tried to use Houston’s rotating defense against the Cougars.
Broome and Jasper are wide open at different points, showing that Auburn can take advantage of the rotating defense, and Auburn will have success with both spots if the guards can make those passes.
In the last meeting, Auburn also ran ball screens with its guards to prevent Houston from sending a big to help with the trap/blitz.
There’s always a chance you get a random breakout game from a freshman like Tahaad Pettiford. Houston will be tough to make it happen against, but Pettiford’s handle and quick burst could prove effective at splitting and blowing by the defenders in the blitz/trap.
Whatever the game plan is, Auburn needs to limit turnovers. Things can snowball pretty quick against Houston, and keeping them out of transition and forcing them to score against Auburn’s defense will be important.
Houston has big guards who can get into the paint, athletic bigs, and good shooters. Milos Uzan looked unstoppable against a (bad) Jackson State team, and no Cougar shot less than 50 percent from three (if they attempted a three). Auburn will have a better chance at stopping Houston’s drive and kick/dish offense if the Tigers can limit turnovers.
Great call on the pettiford breakout game! Didn't hit many threes outside of pettiford but worked that post so well in the second half to pair with his outside game. What a great win. looking forward to reading the breakdown of the win soon!