Getting ready for Vermont

Auburn plays the first game of its regular season basketball schedule on Nov. 6 against the Vermont Catamounts at 7 p.m. central on ESPN/SEC-Plus.

Vermont started its Deep South road trip earlier this week, taking down UAB 67-62 in Birmingham after leading by double-digits at halftime, and moved into KenPom’s top 80 following the opening night win.

The Catamounts are a sneaky good opening night opponent, sporting a top 10 team nationally in minute continuity and a top 40 team in average height. Vermont has also made the NCAA Tournament for three consecutive seasons, losing opening round games to Duke, Marquette, and Arkansas in that span.

Quick stats:

• Vermont 2023-24: 28-7, 71.6 points score per game, 63.0 points allowed per game, shot 56.6 percent from the field, 25.1 percent from three, and 71.6 percent from the line with 13.7 assists per game to 9.2 turnovers per game.

• Vermont versus UAB: 67-62 win, shot 37.9 percent from the field, 37.0 percent from three, and 81.3 percent from the line with 11 assists to five turnovers.

• Auburn 2023-24: 27-8, 83.1 points scored per game, 68.3 points allowed per game, shot 47.6 percent from the field, 35.2 percent from three, and 75.0 percent from the line with 17.8 assists per game to 10.7 turnovers per game.

Stats aside, Vermont has been an institution in mid-major basketball in recent season. From 2017-2019, Vermont also had three consecutive appearances and finished top 80 in KenPom each season.

Even with the poor shooting splits last season, Vermont bested its opponents with good defensive rebounding (No. 9 nationally, per KenPom), good defense (No. 61 in adjusted defensive efficiency), and high percentage shots at the rim. The Catamounts were also top 60 in three pointers attempted last season, which can level any playing field, but were No. 207 nationally in three-point percentage.

Vermont returns its top two scorers in Shamir Bogues and TJ Long. Defensive specialist Ileri Ayo-Faleye and TJ Hurley were also key players on last season’s Vermont team.

Ayo-Faleye will be a difference maker for Vermont, giving his team an elite defender who has a shot at slowing down several positions. He was a top 30 defender nationally, according to Evan Miya’s analytics. Johni Broome was No. 15 in the same category.

Even with Vermont’s reputation for rebounding, UAB dwarfed Vermont on the glass and won the rebounding battle 49-35.

Auburn, as UAB proved, will have to do more than rebound and protect the rim to win. But, the Tigers are double digit favorites for a reason.

The battle down low

Broome and Auburn’s big men battling Ayo-Faleye will be fun to watch. The Vermont big man is undersized but had several big defensive stops against AAC CPOY Yaxel Lendeborg against UAB and has a history of other defensive masterclasses.

Auburn’s guards and shooting

UAB shot 0-10 from three against Vermont while tallying just three assists to seven turnovers. Auburn has an entire season to improve before things really matter, but the guard performance against Vermont could be a precursor for what happens against Houston.  

Vermont’s back court will try to slow Auburn’s down; the Catamounts had one of the slowest tempos in the country last season (No. 350 of 362).

I’m hoping to see JP Pegues and Denver Jones step up as steady hands if Vermont’s defense stifles Auburn the way it did to UAB. I wouldn’t mind seeing Tahaad Pettiford out-talent and out-athlete Vermont for a classic early-season freshman breakout game (but I’m also hoping he saves that for Saturday). Either way, a good game for the backcourt would give me more hope against Houston. A bad game from the backcourt could make this game against Vermont stressful.

How will the freshmen do?

I’m excited to see Pettiford and Jahki Howard in action and to start the tracker on just how good they’ll be this season, even if I don’t put much stock into game ones for freshmen. Both have five-star potential, and both should see early playing time.

I know he’s not a freshman, but I’m also excited for Miles Kelly’s Auburn debut. That dude is going to shoot the skin off the ball a few times this season.

Conclusion

Auburn should win this one by double digits, but Vermont is capable of keeping it close for a while. This team is a more difficult game one opponent than FAU or Furman would be with Vermont’s defensive ability, continuity, and overall well-coached style of play. I’ll take Auburn 81-65 in this one, with the Tigers pulling away in the second half.