Missouri Preview: The two-big test
Auburn tips off SEC play today, hosting Missouri before traveling to Austin to play Texas on Jan. 7.
This should be a win for Auburn, considering it’s at home and the Auburn Tigers are coming off the most impressive non-conference slate in the country. However, Missouri is also a few weeks removed from defeating then No. 1 Kansas.
Auburn had an unusually tough game against Missouri in 2022, when Missouri found ways to stifle that Auburn offense more than anyone else did. It’s a new staff and team at Missouri, but several of the players—and the coaching staff—should be familiar with Auburn.
Auburn recruited Josh Gray, Anthony Robinson, and Peyton Marshall out of high school, with Marshall even committing to Auburn for some time. Missouri Associate Head Coach Charlton “C.Y.” Young also started his coaching career at Auburn in the late 90s before completing another stint on the Planes in the early 2000s.
Missouri at home might not sound like a tough game with how flashy some of the other upcoming SEC matchups are, but Missouri is 11-2 and has an impressive win, no bad losses, and a roster that can catch Auburn off guard if the opportunity presents itself.
More on Missouri
I think this matchup is a good test for Auburn, better than most middle of the pack SEC openers and even better than most other teams in Missouri’s analytical range.
Missouri is starting to look more like the FSU teams that its head coach and associate head coach helped build under Leonard Hamilton. Like those teams, this Missouri team has size and depth in the front court with six guys listed at 6’8” or taller. Missouri has a similar degree of size and depth in the backcourt and uses it to disrupt passing lanes and generate steals, ranking top 10 nationally in defensive steal percentage and top 15 in turnover percentage on KenPom. Auburn’s offense is No. 3 in turnover percentage, making this a good test for both units.
The size and depth will also be a good test for Auburn, even though Missouri doesn’t have the same sort of talent Auburn does.
Missouri is also one of the best teams at drawing fouls, and Auburn’s style of play can lead to high foul counts, so this could be a good look at how Auburn will be officiated in conference play. Robinson and Mark Mitchell will relentlessly attack the rim, giving Auburn’s defense an early shot at staying disciplined.
Eyes on Auburn’s two-big lineups
At the beginning of the season I was iffy about the two-big lineups featuring Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell but they have been dominant in matchups that favor or require such lineups.
I don’t think this game will require Auburn’s two-big lineups in the same way that a game like Iowa State did, but I think Auburn’s best bet at blowing this game open comes by giving heavy minutes to Broome and Cardwell.
Missouri’s front court is headlined by former Duke Blue Devil Mark Mitchell.
Mitchell is more of a forward, and Missouri’s depth gives them a chance to move him around a little more, but Auburn’s increasing confidence in its bigs’ switch-ability gives me hope that we see him matched up against the two-big lineups more often than not.
Mitchell is a good offensive rebounder and can put the ball on the floor, but he’s not a great shooter beyond the arc. So, matching him up against the length of Broome and Cardwell (who have both held their own against guards isolating and driving against them) should be effective and should nullify some of Mitchell’s rebounding prowess.
The key to making this happen is staying out of foul trouble, which is also the same reason I wonder if Auburn will deploy much of these lineups, and the same reason I questioned the two-big lineups early on. Auburn’s biggest advantage in most games comes from its center rotation, so early fouls can drastically alter Auburn’s game plan. Mitchell is top 25 nationally in free throw rate and top 40 nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes.
Missouri also has one of the most efficient two-point offenses in the country. Getting Auburn in foul trouble will likely be a gameplan for Missouri, as it’s one of their strengths and one of the only ways Missouri can get the open looks it’s used to seeing at the basket. Head coach Dennis Gates and company run great offense, but limiting Auburn’s bigs will be their best bet.
Missouri also has some bigger lineups it can go to, with guys such as Mitchell, Jacob Crews (6’8”, 210-lbs), and other forwards able to play on the wing and a deep rotation of bigs at center.
The two-big game-plan could backfire and get Auburn’s bigs in early foul trouble against a Missouri front court that can take advantage of that. It’s a gamble, and a similar gameplan had every big except Johni Broome in foul trouble against Iowa State. That makes this game a good chance to see how the players and/or game plans have changed since then.
What else to watch for
You know I can’t go a whole preview without mentioning Tahaad Pettiford. Pettiford has been a big-game player and I’m interested to see if that translates to being an every-game player now that he’s running almost exclusively at point guard and also entering SEC play. Robinson is a formidable defender for Missouri so this could be a good battle.
Foul trouble for Auburn’s bigs could lead to more minutes for Chris Moore in the front court and more minutes for Jahki Howard on the wing. Howard has been coming along lately, and certainly had the potential to breakout down the stretch, and every opportunity he gets seems exciting.
Denver Jones didn’t make a three against Duke, but he’s shooting 62.1 percent from deep on 5.8 attempts per game since then and 71.4 percent from three in Auburn’s last four games. I’m hoping to see that continue until Jones has the chance to show that he can get a hot hand against the big dogs again. Jones is the only starting SEC player shooting 45-plus percent on threes and 90-plus percent on free throws.