On Mississippi State and what it means for UGA

Why Auburn's Mississippi State win did more than protect Auburn's No. 1 ranking

Auburn couldn’t have had a much better showing than the 88-66 beatdown of No. 15 Mississippi State that the Tigers delivered in their first game without Johni Broome — a game that sparked some hope in me for an UGA win plus a few more during this Broome-less stretch.

Auburn answered just about every question and exceeded just about every expectation anyone had before the game. 

The win is significant because it keeps Auburn at the top of the pack in its quest for a 1-seed in the NCAA and SEC tournaments but also because of how Auburn accomplished the win and what it could mean for the Tigers moving forward. 

Guys stepped up

It resulted in a big win, but the experience those players got from stepping up and showing out in new roles could be even more important than the win.

There’s proof of Auburn’s players maintaining increased levels of play after injured teammates return. Last season Jaylin Williams went down and Auburn found extra minutes for Chad Baker-Mazara and Chaney Johnson in the process, and those guys’ level of play never really dropped off.

Now Baker-Mazara and Johnson have had a chance to take another jump in usage—along with the rest of the team—and continuing that level of play when Broome returns could make this team deadly.

Imagine adding Broome to a team that played the way Auburn did against Mississippi State? If Auburn does that they can probably reach the historic marks that their analytics suggest. 

For the rest of the team to make that happen in game one without Broome probably adds some confidence in their ability to take on new roles, which could be the experience they need to continue that level of play when Broome is back.

Chaney (and his defense) needs to stay

Last season, Cameron Matthews was the reason Auburn lost to Mississippi State.

The first two conference games of this season also saw athletic forwards light Auburn up.

But Chaney Johnson has been the perfect answer to that when he gets the chance to be.

He held Matthews to four points on 2-of-10 shooting and to his lowest offensive rating of the season, per KenPom. Johnson held Collin Murray-Boyles to four points of two-of-five shooting for the final 13 minutes of the South Carolina game.

The former D2 transfer has added much needed weight and rounded out his play on both ends of the court. I think Johnson has the ability to maintain a similar level of play in Auburn’s system, and if he does it throughout Broome’s absence I think we could be in for another elite offensive front court duo.

Chad’s ceiling 

Baker-Mazara has gone through some periods of rapid growth at Auburn. It makes sense with the player he is; he’s extremely talented and confident. When he gets an opportunity he takes it and usually succeeds.

Last year we saw him seize the opportunity when Jaylin Williams went down and he never really gave up his increased role/importance to the team after that — in part due to how versatile and clutch he is.

Against Mississippi State he had a chance to be the team’s star, and in a lot of ways he accomplished it.

I don’t think Baker-Mazara can overshadow Broome, but it’ll be interesting to see if he hangs onto at least a sliver of that star role.

His dominant play is a bit streaky, but this opportunity will let him take over a little more. I’m not sure if he’ll be one, but he looks like an All-Conference player, if not an All-American, when he’s at his best. Several metrics even have Baker-Mazara ranked as one of the best players in the country.

• No. 5 nationally in Box Plus/Minus (with Broome No. 1)

• No. 6 nationally in Offensive Box Plus/Minus (with Broome No. 2)

• No. 9 nationally in Evan Miya’s BPR (overall value, with Broome No. 1)

• No. 9 nationally in offensive rating (CBB Reference) 

• No. 1 in the SEC (No. 16 nationally) in true shooting percentage 

What it means for UGA

The strong front court play from Chaney Johnson and Dylan Cardwell was a good sign, because they’ll have their hands full on Saturday against the Bulldogs. And while the lack of assists against State could be a cause for concern, I think it was also a good sign ahead of UGA.

Not only does Georgia have a good and deep front court, headlined by five-star freshman Asa Newell, but the Bulldogs can draw fouls with the best of them. Through its first two SEC home games, Georgia shot:

• 37 free throws against Oklahoma

• 38 free throws against Kentucky 

• (The Bulldogs had 31 free throws against South Carolina State in a five-point win in the last noncon game of the season)

UGA shot 12 free throws against Tennessee and 17 against Ole Miss in its two SEC road games. If you don’t already know UGA’s SEC record, you can probably guess it pretty easily (2-2, with both road games as the losses). 

The foul distribution has also been pretty rough for UGA’s opponents in Stegman Collesium.

• Oklahoma had a player foul out and three more with four fouls

• Kentucky had four players with four fouls

• South Carolina State had two players foul out and two with four fouls

UGA’s defense

Like Auburn, UGA has the ability to take really good players out of the game – and not just via foul trouble. 

In its game against Kentucky, Amari Williams and Jaxson Robinson both had their worst showings in conference play and arguably of the season. In the win against Oklahoma, UGA held freshman phenom Jeremiah Fears to a 1-of-11 shooting night, his worst shooting night of the season.

Georgia has a lockdown perimeter defender in Silas Demary and also has two good post defenders in freshmen Somto Cyril and Newell. Newell—listed at 6-11, 220–can step out and defend on the perimeter. So, like Auburn, the Bulldogs can disrupt offense, run teams off the three-point line, and muck things up on the perimeter with the added benefit of being able to gamble on steals thanks to the defensive prowess around the rim.

If the game against UGA does turn into a defensive fight, Auburn’s ability to score in isolation and to turn defense into offense will be needed. Auburn did just that against Mississippi State, scoring 88 points with only nine assists. 

There’s also the added fact that Mike White has had Bruce Pearl’s number in several of their high-profile meetings, and now UGA has the talent to make this game a big one.

Auburn had several possessions where it did execute good half court offense against Mississippi State, so there’s hope they’ll get it done against UGA, but the way Auburn scored on Tuesday was good practice and encouraging to see.  

Cause for concern 

The assist-to-turnover ratio wasn’t great, but without Broome—who Auburn runs most of its offense through and who scores more than anyone on the team—a drop in assists was to be expected. Auburn keeping the turnovers under control and finding open shots in game one without Broome overshadows the assist numbers for me.

The bigger cause for concern was rebounding. Auburn was already slipping on the boards a little in SEC play, and the Tigers got out-rebounded 42-30 against Mississippi State. 

Mississippi State missed a ton of shots, and the rebounding total wound up not mattering, but UGA has a couple of elite rebounders and will crash the glass. Newell ranks top 20 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, while RJ Godfrey is also in the top 100. Auburn will need a team effort on the glass in this one.