Pre-SEC thoughts: roster, rotations, and not peaking too early

Auburn wrapped up its non-conference slate with another dominant win as SEC play looms, starting with two former Big 12 schools (the SEC/Big 12 Challenge will never die).

The Monmouth game wasn’t as easy as projected, but Auburn cruised for most of the game after its 16-0 half-ending run.

There’s plenty to be excited about with this team, and I’ve waxed poetically about them here and on Twitter all season, but there are also ways this team can continue to improve.

I don’t mean that in a Debbie-downer “this team isn’t good enough yet” way either, they could make noise throughout the season no matter how they progress. Instead, this is proof that Auburn isn’t peaking too early… or at least, that there are ways for this team to peak at the right time.

We know Johni Broome is the best player in the country, and there are plenty of seniors on this roster that guarantee a high floor, but some recent developments point toward the potential of an even higher ceiling.

Tahaad Pettiford is taking over the point guard position. Chad Baker-Mazara started the season with three consecutive games logging less than 20 minutes, but he has only played less than 20 minutes once since then — playing 25 or more minutes four times since then. He only had eight such games last season.

Jahki Howard might be the biggest what if left for this team, because his highs are as high as anyone and he seems to be finding some consistent minutes.

Auburn is already the best team. Why does it matter?

Auburn arguably has the best roster in the country, the best player, several of the best wins of the season, and the list goes on.

But, college basketball has long seasons, and the name of the game is peaking at the right time. We’ve seen good Auburn teams peak too early and we’ve seen good Auburn teams regroup and peak at the right time. It’s not a guaranteed success, like we saw last season, but it’s the best way to make noise in March and April.

Just because you’re the best team in the country in December doesn’t mean it will stay that way.

But also, just because you’re the best team in December doesn’t mean you can’t peak in March/April, and Auburn is one of the rare teams that fall into that category.

It’s easy to argue that Auburn’s point guard position hasn’t reached its ceiling yet, due to the inconsistent highs we’ve seen from Pettiford, the lows from JP Pegues, and the blossoming of Denver Jones.

If Auburn can optimize the point guard position—especially with the talent there—and Broome keeps playing like the best hooper in the country, this Auburn team can get even more dangerous.

That’s more of a long-term goal, but continually improving backcourt play (especially in a gruesome SEC) would build some extra postseason confidence… for me at least.

Pettiford set his season high in assists with five against Ohio State and then ended noncon play with five assists against both Purdue and Monmouth. He also set a new season high in minutes played against Monmouth.

Pettiford seems to be learning and adapting versus fitting into the system like last season’s guards. He isn’t afraid to seek isolation possessions or turn the ball over on offense. He takes risks with the freedom Auburn’s system provides and he’s nearly unstoppable when they pay off.

He’s also coming around on defense, not reaching as much, and defending shots at a higher rate. He still needs to put it all together and make his highs more consistent. Auburn being able to rely on and gameplan around Pettiford’s highs would only make this team even more dangerous.

Another freshman in the mix

Jahki Howard has shown some really nice flashes. The dunking has been there in just about every game he has played in, but he has started to show off his jumper more and had a solid drive against Monmouth. He’s also starting to get consistent run every game and he’s earning his minutes earlier and earlier.

Howard offers some different looks for Auburn’s offense. His elite athleticism makes him a perfect fit for Auburn’s flex heavy offense, which uses a lot of cuts and screen looks that can open up easy dunks for a guy like Howard — and we’ve seen how good Pettiford’s lob chemistry is with Howard.

Equally important to Howard’s development and minutes at Auburn were his defensive stops. Defensive stops will be much harder to come by with his upcoming SEC assignments, but Howard clearly has the tools needed to take on the main backup role on Auburn’s wing.

Auburn has a complex defense. Everything from how the Tigers’ defenders switch on ball screens, to baseline out of bounds play defense, to pressing, and a host of assignments in between — it’s much more complex than using length and athleticism to stay in front of opponents. And Howard would be hard to keep off the floor if he locks in and learns the system. This isn’t necessarily a call for more minutes either. Even a small improvement there would result in the minutes he already gets.

I don’t think this is as simple of a move as increasing Howard’s workload. He still has some strides to make, especially as a defender, and Chris Moore is a good enough defender to keep getting minutes in certain lineups. Not to mention Baker-Mazara’s dominance in the starting role at the same spot.

Another easy improvement for Howard would be rebounding more. Howard is usually trying to pace the defense and get a fast break look. It’s the same mindset behind him gambling on steals for fast break points. They have their places, but Howard could increase his efficiency by being more selective when looking for those fast break opportunities.

His ceiling is clear and pretty ridiculous. Him breaking out down the stretch isn’t something I’m flat out predicting, but it would be like adding another top 10 recruit to the team if he does it.

Conclusion

This Auburn team is ahead of schedule, but not in a way that makes me worry like the 2022 season. This team is far from just talented with an unstoppable screen and roll action. The can play elite defense 1-5 with certain lineups, they can run great offense with all the facilitators on the roster, and—probably most importantly—there are very tangible ways for this team to continue improving. The wins they’ve stacked also means they don’t have to make changes now and can let the changes make themselves in a way, which should help the team peak later on.

Even if Auburn doesn’t improve, and even if other teams do improve, this team seems destined to be a top 10 team at the worst. Auburn will make noise this postseason no matter what it does, but they have a chance to reach their true potential if everyone plays their cards right.