Predicting Auburn's leading scorers
Auburn has a lot of mouths to feed this season, but the Tigers play with a style that keeps its athletes fresh and well fed, so I expect a lot of points to be scored.
I always like going through the previous season’s averages and trying to guess what I think each guy will average this season and what Auburn will do statistically. This year, I’m putting it in writing. That’s how sure I am of my projections. (Not really. This is for fun. Don’t hold me to it. I truly hope your favorite player outscores everyone I have averaging more than him).
Sorted by points per game, here’s how I think Auburn’s main contributors will fare this season:
Johni Broome (forward/center)
2023-24: 16.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists
Projection: 14.5, 9.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists
I am indeed projecting Broome’s point total to drop a little less this season. My guess is that will happen due to Broome not having to carry the team as much. I also expect him to be more efficient. I think Auburn will use him as more of a decoy to free up shooters and run more offense through him, versus to him, than they did last season.
Miles Kelly (guard/wing)
2023-24: 13.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists
Projection: 11.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists
Kelly is this year’s shooter. He’s going to have actions drawn up to get him shots, he’s going to have ISO oppurutntites, and he’s going to score in transition. And, as much as anything, Kelly won’t be asked to do much besides score. His length and athleticism will also make him a good defender, but I’m confident in him taking over Jaylin Williams’ spot as the second leading scorer. I expect his minutes per game will drop but his efficiency will rise.
Chad Baker-Mazara (wing)
2023-24: 10.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists
Projection: 10.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists
Baker-Mazara might finish as the second most productive player on Auburn’s roster, no matter how many points he scores. The lanky wing is an elite secondary facilitator last season and a disruptive defender. He might not be asked to score much more, but he’ll definitely have his hands on more of the offense — and probably a stuffed stat sheet on a regular basis.
Tahaad Pettiford (guard)
2023-24 (n/a)
Projection: 10.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists
I moved Pettiford all over this board. Part of me thinks that the freshman could have a hard time averaging double digits due to the seniors in front of him. Part of me thinks his talent and lack of point guard duties will let him rack up pointed. I could see Denver Jones and others taking this same spot, so it won’t be a letdown if Pettiford drops a few spots, but he has too much potential to not move up my preseason list.
Denver Jones (guard)
2023-24: 9.1 points, 1.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists
Projection: 9.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists
Jones could easily move into Pettiford’s spot or even higher based on the way he ended last season. However, I think his progress as a point guard and game manager will limit his points per game. Jones is still on track to have some really big games and good shooting performances. During the last eight games of last season—Jones’ longest stretch of the season where he played 20+ minutes per game—he averaged 13.1 points on 53 percent shooting from deep.
JP Pegues (point guard)
2023-24: 18.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists
2024-25: 7.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists
Pegues being a steady hand and steady scorer will keep him near the double-digit points mark most games, but I don’t see him having as many explosive performances as the guards ahead of him. I do expect him to have a consistent role, being the team’s only true point guard and an experienced player. He could also leapfrog some of the other guards on this list if Auburn’s experiments with Jones and Pettiford don’t work out.
Chaney Johnson (forward)
2023-24: 4.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 0.8 sssists
Projections: 6.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists
I think Johnson has as much of an ability to outperform my projections as anyone else, but I don’t know if the opportunity will be there for his true breakout season with Broome playing some at the four. Expect Johnson to have some high ceiling games.
Jahki Howard (wing)
2023-24: (n/a freshman)
Projection: 5.4 points per game, 3.0 rebounds per game, 1.2 assists per game
Like Johnson, Howard will likely have to wait a year before he gets his opportunity to blow up. If Howard fine tunes his game, he could have a huge breakout next season. His athleticism and shooting will still be enough to get him minutes and consistent points. Expect some highlight reel dunks and blocks and for him to show real flashes as a defender.
Dylan Cardwell (center)
2023-24: 5.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists
5.5 points per game, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 blocks per game
I don’t expect Cardwell’s point total to go up. Mainly because I think his extra minutes will come with Broome on the court, who will probably eat up most of the post scoring opportunities, but Cardwell should be solid and efficient when he plays.
Ja’Heim “Turtle” Hudson (forward/center)
5.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 0.9 assists
Projection: 2.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.2 assists
Hudson has a skill set that could surprise people. He can step out and shoot and even showed some flashes of dribble moves. But, Hudson will have to fight for minutes with Johnson and Broome in front of him. He has the potential to score more, and I’d expect that to happen if there’s an injury, or Johnson doesn’t progress as expected, or Broome doesn’t catch on at the four.
Chris Moore (wing/forward)
2023-24: 2.5 points, 1.8 rebounds, 0.8 assists
Projection: 1.7 points, 1.5 rebounds, 0.7 assists
Moore is a great leader for Auburn, but I don’t see him playing a big role unless someone gets hurt. He has shown in the past that he’s capable if needed, but he doesn’t provide the same firepower as others.
This would bring Auburn’s point total up to 84.3 points per game — one point per game greater than last season’s total. However, I think this will be a much more consistent offense overall. With the seniority at guard, wing, forward, and center, Auburn won’t have to worry about its freshman hitting their floors. The Tigers also won’t be as one-dimensional for opposing defenses.
Like I said, this was all for fun. I could see Pettiford—who I’d rank much higher on a scoring potential list—jumping into that second leading scorer role. Same goes for Baker-Mazara and Jones. Auburn has options, and it’ll be fun to see how they shake out throughout the season.
Leave a comment and let me know where I went wrong!