The Auburn Basketball Bible 2024-25
Expectations are as high as ever for Auburn basketball this season, with Auburn tipping off on Nov. 6 and a top five opponent in Houston set for the first Saturday of the season.
With a returning All-American center,, a wing or two destined for breakout seasons, several key depth pieces, and a host of talented guards, this Auburn team is in a position where it can finish off all the business it left behind last season.
Auburn was extremely good when it was playing well last season. I mean, one of the best teams in the country good. Losing to Yale was a fluke for them and likely provided a lesson that won’t let something like that happen again. Hopefully.
This team has the ultimate recipe for mismatches, an efficient offense, a smothering defense, and had a season that provided the ultimate slap-in-the-face ending in March. That matched with the usual athleticism and ever increasing talent at Auburn makes a redemption tour a whole lot more likely than a repeat.
This is going to be a season to enjoy. Forget about last season, it was all building up to this. Auburn has a loaded schedule, a loaded roster, and a team and coaching staff hungry to remind people of what they’re capable of doing.
A coaching friend of mine once said “there’s no experience like losing together.” I think that’s part of what made Auburn’s Final Four team so good. Jared Harper and Bryce Brown did not want to lose, and that’s part of what made the following team so good at winning close games – knowing what it felt like to have one yanked out from under you.
This team has the chance to play with that same attitude, with as much talent as Auburn has had under Bruce Pearl and a coaching staff that has harnessed the same attitude and experience in the past.
Below is a short breakdown of the Auburn roster, complete with game analysis, projections, strengths, weaknesses, and more, followed by analysis of last season’s shortcomings and this season’s responses.
#0 Tahaad Pettiford (6-1, 175, guard)
The freshman is the kind of guard you expect to see on a Bruce Pearl roster. He’s explosive, talented, and plays with a great sense of confidence. He’s a menace in transition but also has the handle, explosiveness, and finishing ability to attack the paint and rim in the half court and has good rise and a good shot on him.
Pearl talked about playing Pettiford off ball and did so a good deal in the exhibitions. However, there were times when Pettiford took control of the offense with another point guard on the court, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of that as he grows into his own.
A Josh Hubbard type season would be great, and seemingly possible, if Pettiford hits his stride. His confidence and athleticism will let him do so earlier than other freshman guards, especially with Auburn not requiring him to run the offense.
Pettiford’s style of play mixed with his agility and explosiveness will make him a disruptive defender at Auburn.
#1 JP Pegues (6-2, 180 guard)
After last season’s debacle at point guard down the stretch I think some people were worried when they didn’t hear that Pegues hadn’t already taken over the team. However, I think Pegues, as is, is a great answer to a scenario like last season’s.
He doesn’t need to be a great scorer or dynamic point guard, Auburn has that in Denver Jones and Tahaad Pettiford. He can afford to be passive, which early reports indicate that he has been, when paired with stars and talented scorers. Still, he needs to add value — more so than the previous passive guards we’ve seen at Auburn. The way Pegues knocked down open threes and pressured the defense when it sagged off against FAU shows me that he can do that. He also has a better handle and more athleticism than previous passive guards. Pegues doesn’t need to steal the show, he just needs to be a productive part of it.
The Furman transfer also has a lot of experience and has a history of making big shots, which makes me comfortable increasing his role if he does play towards his ceiling. I don’t think Auburn will ask for more than good game management from Pegues early on, but he can grow into a bigger role.
I like how Pegues fits this team based on his history. In 2023-23, the season in which Pegues hit a game winner to beat UVA in the NCAA Tournament, he was the third leading scorer on the team with 11.9 points per game. However, he was still a late-game option and Furman was 11-1 in games when Pegues score 15 or more points that season. He’ll be a good fit on a team with several guards who can take over a game.
#2 Denver Jones (6-4, 206, guard)
Jones has received praise for his transition to playing point guard and will likely retain similar duties as a key defender and shot maker for the Tigers – even though the latter duties should be more split up with Pegues and Miles Kelly. I don’t think Jones will be the kind of point guard Auburn fans are used to, his handle won’t let him prod defenses like others have and he'll be more of a game manager than the other two. However, he’ll pressure defenses with his scoring and transition play.
Jones’ defense can be a catalyst, Auburn was 15-3 last season when Jones had one or more steals, so moving him around in the backcourt could be good on both sides of the ball.
If Jones can get to the rim and finish a little better, I think he could have an excellent season with how well he does everything else. I look for him to be one of the steady hands on Auburn’s team who can also get hot and have a scoring outburst. The versatility he gives Auburn’s backcourt will make creating mismatches easier for Auburn, while also bolstering Auburn’s ability to defend potential mismatches better by switching Jones onto them.
#3 Jahki Howard (6-6, 185, wing)
Howard won’t be passive. His game hinges on excitement and athleticism. He’ll go for put-back dunks over defenders, step-back threes, windmills in transition, blocks, etc., and he’ll get some. His shooting might surprise some people after all the hype his athleticism got. While it’s not elite, his shooting is good enough to make defenses step out and one of the things that gives him such a high ceiling.
While Howard’s final recruiting ranking paints him out to be more of a project who can play, it’s worth remembering that he was once a high ranking five-star. ESPN even had him ranked as a top five recruit in 2021. There are going to be glimpses of that five-star ability in year one as well, but it will take him another season to show that level of play consistently — before his handle improves and the game slows down enough for him to attack off the dribble like he could at OTE.
Howard was the OTE Finals MVP after averaging 14.8 points per game. His once top five ESPN rating would have been higher than Jabari Smith Jr.’s final ESPN rating of No. 6.
Howard has the athleticism and fearlessness to be a great defender.
#4 Johni Broome (6-10, 240, center/forward)
Someone not so familiar with the situation might think that Broome is done improving at this point in his college career. Anyone who has followed Broome closely is probably thinking “wait and see” at the least.
Even toward the end of last season, Broome was still improving his game… or showing off more improvements. In post season tournament games, Broome averaged 17.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.8 blocks, and just 2.5 fouls per game on 57/33/70 splits.
Broome improved his three-point shooting percentage by 16 points from the first 17 games of last season to the last 18 games. He also increased his three-point attempts from 1.8 to 2.7 per game over that span.
I don’t think of improvements when I think of a senior center, but I think we’ll continue to see them from Broome. I expect Broome’s free throw shooting to follow suite with his three-point shooting and look more dialed in this season and, with his passing and shooting ability, that will result in even more offense being run through him. Especially since we are already seeing Broome play at the four, a position Auburn likes to run offense through.
Auburn was the only SEC team last season to have a player record 5+ blocks and 4+ assists in the same game. Dylan Cardwell and Johni Broome both accomplished the feat, Cardwell against Baylor and Broome against Vandy.
#5 Chris Moore (6-6, 220, wing/forward)
Moore didn’t really show us anything we didn’t already know last season, but his play down the stretch was enough to guarantee him another year on the Plains. By all accounts, Moore is one of the team leaders off the court and is a great voice to have in that role. On the other hand, he had too many games with almost no production, with 12 games with no points and two of those games with no stats recorded. I expect Moore will lose some minutes to both Baker-Mazara and Howard this season but will still play.
#8 Ja’Heim Hudson (6-8, 240, forward/center)
I don’t expect Hudson to turn into a draft pick this season, but I do expect him to surprise some people. He has a solid looking three-point shot, is extremely tough, and Auburn will be a team more suited to play to his strengths than Georgia State and SMU were.
Hudson also gives Auburn another capable and versatile front court defender. He’s a little bigger than Chaney Johnson at the four and a little smaller than Auburn’s centers. In a year where Auburn likely plans to give its bigs some extra minutes, Hudson is a welcome sign. Especially after all the foul trouble that Auburn’s bigs got into in even less minutes last season.
SMU was 6-1 last season when Hudson shot 100-percent from the line.
#10 Chad Baker-Mazara (6-7, 180, wing)
In his second year at Auburn, I expect Baker-Mazara to take as much of a step forward as anyone. That won’t come as much of a surprise after how Baker-Mazara played down the stretch, but I think just how good Baker-Mazara plays could be a surprise to everyone.
Baker-Mazara is a great player who also fits Auburn’s roster, schemes, and general style of play extremely well. He’s a safety valve—being a wing who can create for himself and others—that Auburn has been missing during its stretches of poor guard play. When he had four or more assists in a game last season, Auburn shot 39.7 percent as a team from three and was 5-1. The lanky wing must dial in his style of play and decision making to maximize his potential. I don’t mean that in reference to the Yale game, it was a bad call for the record, as much as I mean it about things like his behind-the-back pass attempt against Tennessee. If he does, he’ll be a star with all-conference level potential.
His length and burst makes him a constant threat for steals and makes Auburn a headache to score against when paired with other defenders such as Broome and Dylan Cardwell. I’m hoping some adding strength from this offseason will allow Baker-Mazara to be even better as an on-ball defender and not rely so much on gambles for steals.
Auburn was 13-0 when Baker-Mazara made four or more shots in a game.
#13 Miles Kelly (6-6, 190, guard)
Kelly was forced to do a lot for Georgia Tech last season. While watching his 36-point road outing against Louisville, I saw that he didn’t start the game with the hot hand — he created it when no one else on his team could start making shots.
Auburn needed someone capable of taking over in the backcourt last season. Whether or not that dilemma persists into this season, Auburn now has a scorer who can do just that. Kelly won’t have to stay out there shooting and defending when he’s cold, so I think any efficiency concerns from Georgia Tech will disappear at Auburn. He’ll also be playing alongside talented point guards and Baker-Mazara, which will let the transfer guard focus on his scoring talent and not force him to facilitate.
In a way this encapsulates what Auburn’s style of depth and rotations can be so dangerous. On the flip side, Kelly has competition for minutes and Auburn’s staff needs to be smart about getting and keeping these guards capable of scoring 30-plus points in rhythm.
Kelly made three or more three pointers 11 times for Georgia Tech last season, hitting his season high seven threes in a game twice. In contrast, Denver Jones had the most games with three or more threes for Auburn, with seven, and made a season high seven threes once.
Look for Kelly to take the next step as a defender at Auburn. He has the length and athleticism to make a difference and won’t be exhausting himself with different offensive tasks,
#31 Chaney Johnson (6-7, 225, forward)
The four in Auburn’s offense is a pretty important position. While Broome and Hudson are expected to contribute a good deal at the four, Johnson will be hard to ignore if he continues the arc of progression he started last season. I’ll go into a game thinking about the clips I’ll get for Jones or Broome, and I’ll end up being as hyped about the clips I got of Chaney as anyone else’s.
Maybe it’s because I don’t think Auburn needs a lot from him this season, so the flashes are a little more exciting because they don’t need to become extremely consistent in year, but man, Chaney Johnson has some flashes.
He started two games last season in Jaylin Williams’ absence, and we immediately saw a boost – whether it was from confidence or familiarity or necessity. Johnson averaged 7.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists per game on 50 percent shooting from deep, 56 percent from the field, and 78 percent on free throws in 17 minutes per game in those starts. His minutes dropped with Williams’ back in the lineup, but his production really didn’t.
Johnson showed flashes as an elite defender, a solid ball handler, a good shooter, and a terror in transition. I think he’ll have a season comparable to pre-senior season Jaylin Williams. One where you see the flashes but that the competition at his position keeps him from putting it all together this season.
Auburn was undefeated (8-0) when Johnson made a three and/or when he had two or more assists (7-0).
#44 Dylan Cardwell (6-11, 255, center)
Imagine getting worked all possession, on countless possessions, by Johni Broome in the post… just to have Auburn sub in the biggest, strongest player on its roster to crash the glass and defend the rim with fresh legs.
Cardwell isn’t just a crowd favorite; he’s become someone who knows how to make an impact just about every time he hits the court. He’s not Broome, but he’s going to play hard and likely come away with a few blocks, rebounds, and personal fouls in the process. I mean, the guy even dunked on LeBron James (Jr.) last season.
Cardwell had more games with four-plus blocks in less than 20 minutes played than anyone else in the SEC. He was also second in the country in that category with five such games.
What makes Auburn unique
One of the things that makes this team unique to me is the number of guys coming back with star-power. I think you could truly see two stars on this team in Baker-Mazara and Broome. That’s not unheard of with what John Calipari and some of the coaches in the Carolinas have done, but Auburn’s star power would be unique in the sense that it is two guys returning who turned into stars on the same team at Auburn. That form of continuity is rare and will give Auburn an edge in close games, as both guys are reliable and clutch options.
Expectations and trends from last season
Minutes… I think they’ll be split again. I know that will make some people groan, but I think it has a chance to work much better. Last season’s Yale loss should serve as a slap in the face. However, everything leading up the Yale game should serve as proof of the rotations and minute splits working. In a perfect world, the lack of minutes lets you play everyone to their strengths while making substitution when necessary to keep a players’ weakness from being exposed. In that perfect world, though, you still have to ride with your all-conference level players when things get tight. That means force feeding Broome and Baker-Mazara instead of trying to give them an extra breather.
Auburn’s rotations could also be dangerous this year for the kind of mismatches they could expose. Auburn can go big with a two-big lineup, Kelly, Baker-Mazara, and Jones in the backcourt. They can also go small with two guard lineups, Johnson at the four, and Broome at the five. Auburn needs to use its depth not only to keep people fresh, but to attack some of those roster mismatches that they are sure to encounter this season.
Starting five
The same thing goes for Auburn’s starting five. With the way that Auburn rotates its players, you might as well throw some variation into the starting lineup to mess with teams that can’t go too big or too small. I do expect to see a lot of Broome/Cardwell starting fives, but I wonder if they will last if the two bigs get into foul trouble.
Schedule
Auburn’s schedule is daunting, anyone reading this far already knows that. The Tigers have games against teams currently ranked No. 1, No. 2, No. 3, No. 7, No. 12, No. 15, No. 19, and more in KenPom. Many of those are on the road or on neutral sites.
However, this Auburn team should have all of its goals focused on improving and dialing things in for March. This team has won big games and won an SEC title together, for the most part. Auburn will likely try out new lineups and experiment in them. What I’ll be more concerned about is if those experiments yield lessons and results with better performances down the stretch.
It happened last season with Baker-Mazara and Jones contributing more as the season went on and Broome turning into a dominant force. However, there was room for improvement, and this Auburn team and the schedule ahead will be a chance to show off those improvements.
Good stuff !WDE!
Nice work Jay !