The Big Game

Auburn versus Alabama. Number one versus number two.

SEC basketball has been building up to this one for a while. The arms race when it comes to coaches, arenas, and recruits has been firing on all cylinders for years now, the conference has continued trending up, and now—this season—the SEC is the cream of the crop in college hoops.

All of that has culminated with the first No. 1 versus No. 2 basketball matchup in conference history. And of course, it’s Auburn versus Alabama.

I won’t beat around the bush. Alabama should probably be considered the hotter team right now. Alabama is also at home. I expect them to be a trendy pick.

That said, Florida was in a similar position before it upset Auburn last week, and Auburn has the pieces to run anyone out of any gym when the Tigers play their best game – pieces that could provide some sizable advantages in this game if things go in Auburn’s favor.

This is also a chance for Auburn to make the biggest statement it has yet. The Tigers started off the season beating several of the best teams in the country away from home but have lost their edge to an extent. Getting a win in Tuscaloosa would not only solidify Auburn’s current standings and the Tigers’ ceiling, but it would also show this team is capable of locking in when it has to — which puts all the Tigers’ lofty goals in reach.

A loss isn’t the end of the world, but a win is a statement and there’s a way Auburn can get there.

How to beat Alabama

The key for Auburn on so many levels will be slowing this game down and playing half court basketball. Auburn does have the firepower needed to keep up with Alabama if it turns into a shootout, but doing so on the road against a red hot Alabama team sounds a lot more difficult than slowing the game down.

Limiting turnovers and turning Alabama over is the best way to accomplish this, as Alabama has the highest pace in the conference.

Not only is Auburn a better half court team on both sides of the court, but slowing the game down will force Alabama to play out of its comfort zone.

Alabama has the second best two-point percentage in the country (60.8) and gets to the line at a high rate, but the Tide also get a little too addicted to threes for how efficient they are elsewhere.

Auburn might not be able to keep Alabama off the charity stripe, especially in Coleman, but Alabama has shot 26 percent, 30 percent, 25 percent, and 31 percent in some of their less-than-hot shooting outings – despite holding a top-two three point percentage in the conference. If Auburn can force one of those outings, and if Auburn’s two-point defense travels as well as it should, the Tigers will have a good chance in this one. And there’s a reason to believe it could happen.

Alabama’s offense has been elite, but the Tide haven’t played against Tennessee, Florida, or Auburn – three of the SEC’s top five defenses. The Tide split games against the other two of the top five, with Ole Miss holding Alabama to 64 points in a home loss in one of the two.

There are also the narratives regarding Mark Sears’s going against a defense like Auburn’s (especially after his benching), Aden Holloway’s spotty play and comments about Auburn, and Alabama’s lack of defense.

But, Alabama is playing at home, so the chances of them shooting well would be higher… you’d think. Alabama is averaging 30.7 percent from beyond the arc in home games and 38.9 percent from three in away games. The Tide are, however, shooting 59.2 percent from two on the road compared to 63.7 percent at home.

Alabama is also prone to giving up some big individual performances. While the narrative revolves around front courts going off against the Tide, there have been some backcourts popping off in the same way.

• Arkansas had Zvonimir Ivisic (27 points (five threes), seven rebounds, two assists, three blocks, and three steals) go off against Alabama, while Adou Thiero has 22 points, six rebounds, two assists, two steals in the same game.

• Georgia had Asa Newell go for 16 points, seven rebounds, and five steals.

• Mississippi State had Keshawn Murphy tally 18 points and six rebounds in a game Josh Hubbard scored 38 in.

• Ole Miss had Malik Dia go for 23 points, 19 rebounds, and three blocks.

• Texas’s Tre Johnson had 24 points.

• A&M’s Pharrel Payne went for 23 points, nine rebounds, and four blocks.

Auburn also has a guy with a good history of popping off against Alabama.

• Johni Broome averages 16.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 2.8 blocks per game against Alabama. He had 25 points, 14 boards, and five blocks in the last meeting. Dia’s game in Ole Miss’s upset win showed the kind of damage Broome can do.

I also like the chances of Tahaad Pettiford having a big game in this one. Not only because a smaller guard in Hubbard did the same thing, but because Pettiford has the same ability to move around in the backcourt and always has the big-game ability in stock. Alabama’s guards, and players in general, on the other hand are not great defenders.

• Aden Holloway, Chris Youngblood, Derrion Reid, Latrell Wrightsell, and Mark Sears rank in the bottom 50 in the SEC for defensive BPR on Evan Miya.

Like it or not, and whether you’ve moved past it or not, this game also probably carries some extra weight due to Aden Holloway. I imagine it will be personal for Auburn to keep him bottled up in this one, but it’s also worth remembering that he personally called out Auburn and its coaches for his poor play as a freshman – and we’ve seen Auburn players/teams go to battle for Bruce Pearl and the coaches before. This game is giving me some Knoxville 2018 vibes.

Alabama still probably wins the pre-game vibe check, but I think Auburn can lock in and resume its early season form with the experience, talent, and big-game ability the Tigers have.