The keys to Maui and beating Iowa State
Fourth ranked Auburn starts its trip to Maui on Monday night with a game against a fellow top five team in fifth ranked Iowa State.
It isn’t just the rankings that are similar, Auburn and Iowa State match up across the board on paper. Both teams like to go fast and attack the basket on offense and have defenses that can shut down opposing offenses.
Iowa State also has a couple of high scoring guards and wings, two capable big men clocking in at 6-10 or taller, and is analytically the top team in the country at preventing turnovers and turning its opponents over.
The biggest difference between the two teams is that Iowa State hasn’t tested any of their flashy metrics on a good team this season, while Auburn played (arguably) its best game of the season against its toughest opponent in Houston.
Auburn will be Iowa State’s first opponent inside the top 250, according to KenPom. Iowa State, which also finished last season as a top 10 KenPom team, had a similar start to last season before losing the first two games it played against top 60 KenPom teams in late November.
It’ll take more than big-game experience for Auburn to defeat a team and defense that has some answers for Auburn’s weapons in ways the Tigers haven’t seen so far this season, but Auburn is favored for a reason.
While there are plenty of good teams in the field this year, this is by far the best opening round game in Maui and could go down as the best game in Maui this year.
Auburn’s offense versus Iowa State’s defense
Auburn’s chances for success hinge on its ability to expose another analytically great defense.
Iowa State’s defense, like Houston’s, has a distinct style that could entice Auburn to switch some things up.
The Cyclones’ defenders force as much as they can to the baseline to cut off the key and middle of the court. Auburn does have some ball screen actions it runs from the wings that will be effective, but Iowa State will try to scheme out those quick hitting high post touches that Chaney Johnson and Johni Broome ate Houston alive on.
However, like Houston’s defense, Iowa State’s defense relies heavily on help defense and rotating. The Cyclones will sell out on keeping guys out of the key by any means necessary, even if it means letting their man beat them on the baseline. Their defense is also coached to rotate and help to ensure that the ball handler doesn’t get an easy layup. This gives the offense a numbers advantage on the weak side. This is shown below, when Iowa State completely sells out on forcing a drive baseline and then helping to stop the ball handler.
No. 30 comes wide open for a lob due to the Iowa Sate rotation, and then No. 7 comes wide open on the backside.
Auburn’s ball movement exploited the number advantages that Houston’s defense gave up, time and time again, so we’ll see if they can do it again. I think Tahaad Pettiford’s quick burst and big game ability could factor into this one again. The guards making quick decisions and accurate passes when they do beat that first man will be crucial. While they can get a contested layup in the paint, a few good passes against a scrambling defense usually results in open shots.
On the other side of the tracks
Iowa State’s offense isn’t much different than Auburn’s. The Cyclones like to run ball screen actions and more intricate pick and rolls and thrive on mismatches. Auburn’s switching defense plays right into what Iowa State wants, but Auburn has bigs capable of defending guards on the perimeter, so the Tigers might be able to stifle the Cyclones offense.
What’s next?
If Auburn wins, the Tigers will play again on Tuesday at 10 p.m. against the winner of UNC versus Dayton. If UNC wins, it’ll give Auburn another top 10 opponent — one whose only loss of the season came 92-89 at Kansas.
Michigan State, Colorado, Memphis, and UConn are almost in the tournament. If Auburn makes it to the championship, they’ll play on Wednesday at 4 p.m.
