What expect from Ole Miss

Auburn is once again on the road after an LSU win that felt closer than expected for most of the game.

A win is a win when it comes to traveling in the SEC, but today’s game in Oxford won’t be any easier and will require a more locked in performance from Auburn.

Ole Miss just broke a three game losing streak with a three point win over Texas. Whether Chris Beard and the Rebels are back or not is up for debate, but the team has certainly improved from last season.

Auburn has a pretty noticeable size difference over the Rebels and I like Auburn’s chances of finding some rhythm on the road in this one, but Ole Miss has a top 10 defense on KenPom and a few solid wins — including a road win against Alabama.

Battle in the backcourt

Ole Miss is holding its opponents to 29.7 percent from three on the season, good for No. 26 nationally. In conference play, the Rebels are holding opponents to 26.8 percent from three (No. 1 in SEC play).

Auburn is shooting 36.8 percent from three in conference play. The Tigers were scorching hot from three through their first few SEC road games before coming back down to earth with a 32-percent night from three at LSU.

That matchup sounds like a battle of giants, but I think Auburn has the pieces to take advantage of Ole Miss’s defense from inside and outside the three-point line.

Breaking down the Ole Miss defense

Chris Beard and Mark Adams are back together and the defense is playing like it during their days at Texas Tech.

They run a style of “no middle” defense, which Beard has said focuses on taking away a key component of the opponents’ offense — which I’d guess is the middle when it comes to Auburn.

They’ll run some zone defense to get this done, but they’ll also use some full court pressure and a lot of ball pressure. The results have the Ole Miss defense top 15 nationally in steal percentage and turnover percentage, which rank No. 1 and No. 2 in SEC play, in addition to the perimeter shooting defense.

Ole Miss’s defense will sell out on early shot clock ball pressure and on forcing Auburn to the perimeter and baseline. Auburn saw defenses with similar goals in games against Houston and Iowa State.

Having a lineup full of guys who are quick enough and fast enough to run around screens and recover/close out quickly makes the Rebels’ defense work but also results in Ole Miss having a smaller lineup.

I think this favors Auburn in a couple of ways. Obviously size wise. Auburn can overwhelm Ole Miss in the front court and even in the backcourt depending on the lineup.

Scheming against a goal oriented defense that plays some zone is where I think Auburn will really excel. Houston didn’t run a zone defense, but its extended ball screen blitzes forced them to scramble a lot and play a lot of help/recovery defense. Auburn’s offense looked flawless at times against it, and the Tigers can treat the zone defense in a similar way in terms of preparation and hopefully execution. The same goes for the second half of the Iowa State game.

Auburn has the shooters—and road shooters like Miles Kelly—needed to hurt a zone on its weak side and good wing facilitators, so the Tigers can find good scoring opportunities by passing around the zone if they stay disciplined, run the offense, and exploit mismatches. The question of making those good looks is different, but Auburn has been a good shooting team on the road against good defenses at times this season.

Auburn also has the added benefit of Johni Broome’s passing ability. If Ole Miss sells out enough to send double teams at him when he does get a middle touch then we all know the kind Auburn can run through Broome’s passing.

While Ole Miss is a smaller team, they’ve had good rim protection and rank in the top 15 in shot blocking percentage. So, it won’t be a walk in the park down low.

Ole Miss’s post players are better rim protectors than their height indicates, but the size does hurt Ole Miss on the glass. Auburn’s size advantage should lead to another massive rebounding advantage if the Tigers attack the glass like they did against LSU.

Ole Miss lost the rebounding battle by double digits in each of its three SEC losses.

• Missouri was +11

• Texas A&M was +17

• Mississippi State was +22

There are several defenses I’d much rather play, but Auburn is as equipped to handle Ole Miss’s defense as anyone.

There are things that can go wrong for Auburn, and this is definitely a game Auburn could lose, but if the Tigers are as prepared and locked in as they’ve been in some of their road games and neutral site games this could also be a comfortable win