What to do without Johni Broome
What to expect from Auburn in its Broome-less stretch and reasons to remain optimistic
Auburn hosts a top 15 Mississippi State team tonight in the Tigers’ first full game without Johni Broome this season.
It would be easy to write off a loss to State, but a win would be big for Auburn’s chances of keeping its No. 1 ranking alive and competing for an SEC title and a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. And Auburn can certainly win this game.
The Tigers have several guys in the front court who have upped their minutes and levels of play to cover for their injured teammates in the past. Chaney Johnson is probably the most notable, when he went from showing flashes of SEC ability to looking like a capable starter after Jaylin Williams’ injury last season.
While a win today isn’t necessary, it would instill a lot of confidence and some excitement heading into what looks like a Broome-less stretch of games.
Who steps up?
I think Johnson will be the most exciting guy to watch in Broome’s absence. Not just because he did so well spelling Williams last season, but because Auburn asks so much of its four/power forward on offense, and Johnson is the only true four on the team.
During his Auburn career, Johnson has posted:
15.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.0 block per game averages when he plays 25+ minutes.
10.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.0 block per game averages when he plays 20+ minutes.
Taking it a step further, Johnson is averaging 68 percent from the field in games when he plays 25+ minutes and 61 percent from the field when he plays 20+ minutes.
In the two games that he started in place of Williams, Johnson averaged 10.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists, and 1.0 blocks on 61.5 percent shooting.
Johnson is the only SEC player averaging 10-plus points and five-plus rebounds in less than 23 minutes per game. He’s the only player in the country averaging those stats without a single game started this season.
Johnson will have an opportunity to have a massive game on both ends of the court. He’ll likely see more shot attempts, more offense run through him, and a big defensive matchup.
On Sunday I wrote about how Auburn’s two-big lineup is getting burned by quicker fours and teams that can draw Auburn’s bigs out of the paint.
Last season, Cameron Matthews had a double-double against the Tigers and won KenPom’s MVP of the game award. He is more of a traditional power forward compared to the guys Auburn has faced in the past two games, but it’ll be a good test.
All eyes on the backcourt
Without Broome in the game, Auburn’s offense loses its safety valve, its leading assist-man, and an integral part of its pick and roll offense.
Dylan Cardwell and Johnson have their own strengths and both have been good passing bigs, but the spacing created by Broome’s gravity and shooting ability will shift. Auburn won’t have the ability to find open shooters off double teams, and offense run through the five won’t be elite. This means Auburn’s guards must create more for themselves and others — something they’re capable of doing but haven’t been tasked with too often. In a perfect world, this will give the guards some extra confidence and maybe spark a player’s breakout.
This could be a game where the backcourt carries Auburn to victory behind the increased opportunities, but it won’t be a game that Auburn wins without good guard play.
Auburn’s guards have the talent and experience, but their first game without an elite safety valve, and with the defense keying in on the backcourt, will be a tough test.
Auburn’s X-factor
Chad Baker-Mazara has been the X-factor for Auburn at times this season, but at this time last season he was still looking for his rhythm and consistent minutes.
His growth from a JUCO transfer to one of the best wings in the SEC has been rapid, and this will also be his first time playing without Broome. More responsibilities in the offense could result in even more rapid growth.
He’s a tall wing with all conference potential who can have the offense run through him. Seeing how CBM’s usage changes will be something to keep an eye on. He has the confidence needed to roll with the coming increased usage and the ability to handle it.
On rotations
Seeing Johnson play some small ball five and seeing CBM play some point forward would be fun, but it’s not what I expect to see.
With Auburn’s philosophy around depth and minute spread—and with what the coaches have done in the past—I expect we’ll see less backup minutes, Turtle Hudson as the backup five, and Chris Moore as the backup four.
Things could change in a hurry with Johnson and Cardwell having a tendency to get in foul trouble, but I don’t foresee the lineups changing too much without it. Keeping guys in their natural positions will make for a smoother transition when Broome does return.